It’s time to face up to a morbid reality: Democracy in the UK is on life-support and may well struggle to make it through the aftermath of another hung Parliament with the secret backroom deals which will necessarily follow next Thursday night's result.
This democratic crisis began with Cameron smothering the life out of the election with the longest and most negative campaign in living memory. All part of his cynical attempt to shut Nigel Farage out of the Leader's Debate, immediately disenfranchising and snubbing millions of English voters in the process. The very same people that he then asked to vote for him! Oh, the irony.
His long term game plan of winning the election by being a Tory moderniser riding on the back of an export-led recovery has failed, landing him, his party and more importantly our nation in A&E.
Firstly, the latest economic figures underline how GDP is now being fuelled largely by immigration which means it's not in the Cameron's interests to bring it down.
Secondly, by spurning his traditional supporters, Cameron's vote share is projected to fall 2 points to just 34%, using US election guru Nate Silver's analysis. And remember, this is the leader who couldn’t even win the 2010 election against Mr "29-per-center" himself, Gordon Brown. This points to it being 23 years since the Conservatives won an election. The Tory heart monitor is clearly nearing that fatal, long, flat beep.
And this is precisely why every single UKIP vote will now count in this election. Or to be more exact, on what happens immediately after May 7th.
It is now a question of democratic legitimacy given multiple parties will decide who governs. According to Nate Silver’s friends at electionforecast.co.uk, the Conservative – Lib Dem arrangement is likely to total just 45% of all votes cast. Labour – SNP would likely be just 36%, or if you add Plaid Cymru and the Greens you’d drag it up to around 41%.
Less than 50% of the votes in a multi-party power-share will not be a legitimate government in the electorate’s eyes. It will be a right old Eton mess, made with plenty of fruits and different political colours . Especially unpalatable for the English, if the SNP tail indeed wags the Labour dog.
Instead, there will need to be another election, and doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is Einstein’s very definition of insanity.
So the main parties will have to agree to do something drastic. Really drastic.
This could mean forming a short-lived grand coalition by Cameron and Miliband which brings in a form of PR used to lock out the undue influence of the SNP and Lib Dems. Ironically, this could be very good news for UKIP because it’s level of support is likely to overtake the Lib Dems and could see nearly 100 MP’s returned to Westminster in a simple PR system according to Electoral Calculus.
Ukippers would therefore be voting not just for the now, keeping Cameron from getting power outright or with a Lib Dem continuum, but also for the hereafter, a far greater seat count in Parliament in a fresh election, in say, 2016. Because as the SNP have already demonstrated, once people believe their vote really counts, they do come out in even greater numbers to boost that support.
And by capitalising on this new belief through more UKIP votes at the ballot box, it is not only the English patient that will be cured, but the Union too.
The English Patient: Why Every UKIP Vote Counts
Added 2 years, 2 months ago.